Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Interesting Times
Compared to one year ago today, the major stock market indices are up. The S&P 500, for example is up about 20% year over year. Compared to two years ago though, the S&P 500 is down 31%. A gain of 45% is needed to get the market back to even. Ouch.
Many experts expect a "jobless recovery." Cost cutting measures may lead to some earning surprises on the upside and a market bump in the near term. But how far can the economy and the markets go without jobs?
How much of the current unemployment will turn out to be long term structural unemployment? The current unemployment picture is bleak:
When does that picture improve and how much can it improve in the U.S. with the long term or permanent loss of many jobs? And what impact does that have on the economy and the markets?
Many experts expect a "jobless recovery." Cost cutting measures may lead to some earning surprises on the upside and a market bump in the near term. But how far can the economy and the markets go without jobs?
How much of the current unemployment will turn out to be long term structural unemployment? The current unemployment picture is bleak:
When does that picture improve and how much can it improve in the U.S. with the long term or permanent loss of many jobs? And what impact does that have on the economy and the markets?
